Barack Obama Wins

The US race is closed and Obama has won. I think this was widely expected except in the republican camp where they see the world through somewhat cloudy lens. Unfortunately I am not sure that this is a good result for business. Congress is still in the hands of the GOP and the US political scene has become so polarized that there is little doubt that the republicans would turn down a scheme even if it was good for America just to spite Obama.

This does not bode well for the big financial decisions required before year end. Yes Obama can now say to the GOP I got reelected, it was not a fluke as you all thought, now can we get serious? But I think this may not work. I spent years living in America, and outside the main cities its a old fashioned backward and some might say red neck country. Looking at the map one can see that with one or two exceptions South of the Mason Dixon and through the farming belt its all GOP. The Democrats do well in sophisticated cities and large urban areas with diverse populations and high levels of education.  Its hard to see how things will improve when over 80% of states are able to be predicted as they always vote the same.

I think we may see a brief surge in the markets that its over, followed by a downturn until it can be shown that the President can work with Congress and achieve at least a bargain to move ahead....however reluctantly.