Without arguing from a reasonable base that a jury in Silicon Valley, home to Apple the largest employer, is likely to vote for Apple versus Samsung, I would like to put some perspective on the trial results so far.I say so far because in similar jury trials in other countries on the same basis the results have varied a lot from the trial in Silicon Valley this week. Also of course Samsung will appeal. I think it quite likely to see Henry Fords children now try to argue that a box with 4 wheels that runs on a road is patented by Ford.
But ignoring the right and wrong for a moment lets look at the 5.6bn mobile phone universe, of which the USA has 325m phones, or less than 6%. The verdict only affects the USA. Of the 325m its estimated that about 100m are smartphones and that Samsung has 25% of that market. So in question are some part of 25m phones. That's about a $10bn hit if they all get withdrawn. Now that's interesting as Samsung shares lost about $12m yesterday, and if you add the judgement of $1bn to the potential loss of $10bn your are not far off. They say the market prices right and it looks like it did its math.
Samsung of course will suffer more of a prestige loss than a real loss, as with revenue of 150bn the potential loss is less than 10%. Also the verdict affected I am told a number of old model phones that Samsung no longer sells. It does not affect the latest phones which are the ones mostly selling globally such as the S3, nor does it affect the tablet.
On the back of the verdict strange things happened. Nokia, Microsoft and RIM all rose, on the basis I suspect that one persons loss is another gain. The market I suspect assuming that Microsoft and RIM are not vulnerable to Apple legal attacks as their smartphones are totally different. But guess what, they are all rectangles with rounded corners. If on appeal Apple can sustain the notion, flawed as it is, that they can patent a rectangle with rounded corners then the world is in trouble.
I think the dust has not settled yet. Samsung will appeal, a trial in Washington may get a very different result than one in Apples home town. But Steve Jobs must be happy in his grave as he is on record as saying he wanted to destroy Google and all its makers.
But ignoring the right and wrong for a moment lets look at the 5.6bn mobile phone universe, of which the USA has 325m phones, or less than 6%. The verdict only affects the USA. Of the 325m its estimated that about 100m are smartphones and that Samsung has 25% of that market. So in question are some part of 25m phones. That's about a $10bn hit if they all get withdrawn. Now that's interesting as Samsung shares lost about $12m yesterday, and if you add the judgement of $1bn to the potential loss of $10bn your are not far off. They say the market prices right and it looks like it did its math.
Samsung of course will suffer more of a prestige loss than a real loss, as with revenue of 150bn the potential loss is less than 10%. Also the verdict affected I am told a number of old model phones that Samsung no longer sells. It does not affect the latest phones which are the ones mostly selling globally such as the S3, nor does it affect the tablet.
On the back of the verdict strange things happened. Nokia, Microsoft and RIM all rose, on the basis I suspect that one persons loss is another gain. The market I suspect assuming that Microsoft and RIM are not vulnerable to Apple legal attacks as their smartphones are totally different. But guess what, they are all rectangles with rounded corners. If on appeal Apple can sustain the notion, flawed as it is, that they can patent a rectangle with rounded corners then the world is in trouble.
I think the dust has not settled yet. Samsung will appeal, a trial in Washington may get a very different result than one in Apples home town. But Steve Jobs must be happy in his grave as he is on record as saying he wanted to destroy Google and all its makers.
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