Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Global Retail - 10 years review

In 2001 Walmart led the pack with 191bn sales followed by Carrefour 65bn, Ahold 52bn Kroger 49bn and Metro 47bn. Ahold is a Dutch company that fell off the radar as it "only" has sales of 30bn. Kroger is a major US player still.

In 2012 according to Supermarket news the list is

Walmart, 10130 stores, 444bn
Carrefour 9,672 stores 113bn
Tesco 6,234 stores 104bn
Metro 2187 stores 92bn
Lidl  11029 stores 90bn

Walmart then grew 232% in 11 years and Carrefour 173% and Metro 195%. Unfortunately Tesco was not even in the 2001 rank but was 6th in the 2002 with 46bn giving 226% over 10 years. Walmart is very well managed and that is reflected in its share price.

What becomes more interesting is looking at the global segmented market shares. In this area Carrefour is the leading player in  many areas, South America, China, Asia, Africa and it looks like soon to be India, where the government has relaxed restrictions. According to the researchers of these things, other than USA and Europe, where the retail sales of food is segmented by half a dozen companies, the rest of the world is extremely fragmented, with hundreds of small players local to each market. This is where Tesco, Walmart and Carrefour show growth of 9-18% and it seems to me this is the growth area for them. The sheer scale of their operations and logistics must give them huge advantages over time and make them well worth considering for investment.

Look at it this way. Everyone has to eat, so these shares are good in a recessionary market. They all pay substantial dividends between 4 and 6%, and they have enormous growth potential still in the global arena.


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